|
Peak Oil
"Peak Oil" is a term that describes the
situation and time when the flow rate of oil produced from a
particular set of oil fields reaches a maximum and thereafter starts
to fall as the fields are depleted.
In 1955 M King Hubbert, a
geologist from Shell Oil, presented a paper that described how such
an event could occur and what the flow rates would look like before
and after the peak. In retrospect, his ideas were verified when the
oil fields of the United States collectively went through a peak in
1972. Since then, the history of oil production from the North Sea
and Indonesia have shown the same characteristics.
In the
last five years, there has been a great controversy concerning
whether Peak Oil would occur on a world-wide basis, and if so, how
it would affect the economy and when it would happen.
At
this point in time, "Peak Oilers" generally agree that the peak
occurred in December, 2008, and flows will fall over time at much
the same way as they increased to that point. They predict that by
2030 -- in twenty years -- the overall oil production of the
world will be around 50% of what it is now.
There are many
who deny that such a peak could ever exist, and others who say if it
does, the peak will not be reached for several decades. In other
words, they are saying that there will not be any shortage of energy
in the near future.
Consider what the world will like if the
amount of available fossil fuels is decreased by half.
The
United States uses the most fossil fuel per capita of any country.
In fact, we use 25% of all the fossil fuels on earth, with only 4%
of the population. 40% of the oil is used for transportation, the
rest for production of fertilizer, plastics, electricity, etc. If we
share in the loss, our economy suffers by a 50% cut in
transportation and an equivalent drop in production. If we do not
lose our "share" we will be using 50% of all the fossil fuels on
earth, and the rest of the world will see a 67% cut in their
available energy. If that happens, we have no world-wide trading
partners. They have all starved to death, and they will be incapable
of buying our exports of selling any goods to us.
So we must
expect to see some amount of reduction. We must go to renewable
energy sources for much of what we do. There simply will not be
enough fossil fuel to support our economy.
On top of the
theory of Peak Oil, there are several other ideas that indicate
there is even more of a problem out there. On of these is Brown's
ELM, Export Land Model, that points out that the producing countries
(like Mexico, Canada, Saudi Arabia, etc) are increasing the use of
the oil they produce at the same time the oil fields are being
depleted. This means that those countries may run out of oil to
export even sooner than expected.
So, how do we prevent this
from happening, and what should we do to
prepare?
There are several
variations on this
|
